Asteroid YR4: Where Could It Hit? The Map of At-Risk Countries. NASA Doubles the Impact Risk

In recent hours, asteroid 2024 YR4 has returned to the spotlight due to the possibility of impacting Earth in 2032. Initially, NASA estimated an impact probability of 1.2% (about one chance in 83), later increased to 1.5%. Recently, the American space agency further revised the estimate, raising it to 2.3%. In the event of an impact, the potentially affected areas would include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. The countries most at risk could be Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The impact would have a power equivalent to 500 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima. 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope, funded by NASA, in Rio Hurtado, Chile. The asteroid had a close approach to Earth on December 25, making it bright enough to be detected in asteroid surveys.